GBP/USD oscillates just below 1.24. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.
25 bps hike likely
Risks skewed to the downside but at the same time, we observed a potential falling wedge, which may point to a bullish reversal at some point. We watch price action for confirmation.
We still expect a 25 bps hike at the upcoming MPC as wage growth remains red hot and core CPI remains elevated. That said, GBP could still trade on the back foot amid the BoE nearing the end of tightening cycle while stagflation concerns returned.